ChatGPT is Changing Trading Forever: Here’s How You Can Ride the AI Wave!
Welcome to the 76th edition! This issue is a toolkit for the agile trader, packed with actionable ways to boost your results—whether you’re building algos with AI, maximizing profits with smarter stops, or seizing opportunities in the fastest-moving markets. Level up your strategy with every article and let each new skill sharpen your trading edge.
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Market Outlook: November 17–21, 2025
Overview
The week of November 17–21, 2025, arrives in the wake of the U.S. government shutdown resolution but continues to grapple with uncertainty over Fed rate cuts and economic data gaps. Global markets are cautiously optimistic, supported by strong Q3 corporate earnings but weighed down by sticky inflation, weakening labor markets, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Flash PMI data, FOMC minutes, and key inflation readings from major economies will shape sentiment as investors position for the final stretch of 2025.
Key Themes and Drivers
1. U.S. Economic Data and Fed Policy
- FOMC Minutes (Wednesday, Nov 19): The minutes from the October meeting will be scrutinized for clues on the December rate decision. Fed officials have recently signaled caution, with market expectations of a December cut falling to around 50% from 95% a month ago.
- Key Data Releases: Empire State Manufacturing Index (Monday), Industrial Production (Tuesday), Building Permits and Housing Starts (Wednesday), Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales (Thursday), and Flash PMIs for Manufacturing and Services (Friday).
- Inflation and Growth: Fed policymakers remain concerned about sticky inflation (CPI at 3.1% core) despite recent economic resilience. The flash PMIs will provide crucial insights into whether growth momentum continued in November after accelerating in October.
2. Global Inflation and Growth Indicators
- UK: Inflation data for October (Wednesday) and retail sales (Friday) will be critical for assessing Bank of England policy. Markets are pricing in a greater likelihood of a December BoE rate cut following the split 5-4 decision to ease in November.
- Eurozone: Final CPI for October (Wednesday) and flash PMIs for November (Friday) will guide ECB policy expectations. Concerns persist about whether manufacturing growth is cooling as tariff front-loading fades and political instability in France weighs on activity.
- Canada: CPI for October (Monday) and retail sales (Friday) will inform Bank of Canada policy direction.
- Japan: Q3 preliminary GDP (Monday), final Industrial Production (Monday), inflation data (Friday), and flash PMI (Friday) will be watched closely. Signs of economic resilience alongside ongoing price growth could shorten odds on a Bank of Japan rate move in December.
3. Central Bank Meetings and Commentary
- ECB General Council Meeting (Thursday, Nov 20): While this is a non-monetary policy meeting, any commentary will be parsed for forward guidance.
- Bank of Indonesia (BI) Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, Nov 19): EM central bank policy remains in focus.
- People's Bank of China Loan Prime Rate (Thursday, Nov 20): No change expected, but any surprise could move EM assets.
- RBA Meeting Minutes (Tuesday, Nov 18): Insights into the Australian central bank's thinking will influence AUD and regional sentiment.
4. Geopolitical and Market Sentiment
- The resolution of the U.S. government shutdown has improved sentiment, but data gaps remain. Markets are also watching U.S.-China trade negotiations and ongoing Middle East tensions.
- Corporate earnings season continues with strong results, particularly in technology, supporting equity indices despite valuation concerns.
Key Events Calendar
| Date | Event/Data Release | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17 | Canada CPI (Oct), US Empire State Mfg Index (Nov) | Inflation, manufacturing sentiment |
| Nov 17 | Japan Q3 GDP (prelim), Switzerland Q3 GDP (flash) | Asia-Pacific and European growth |
| Nov 18 | US Industrial Production (Oct), RBA Minutes | US manufacturing, AUD policy outlook |
| Nov 19 | UK CPI (Oct), Eurozone CPI (Oct, final) | Inflation trends, BoE/ECB policy |
| Nov 19 | US Building Permits, Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes | Housing, Fed policy direction |
| Nov 19 | Indonesia BI Rate Decision | EM monetary policy |
| Nov 20 | US Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales | Labor market, housing demand |
| Nov 20 | China Loan Prime Rate, ECB General Council Meeting | EM rates, ECB forward guidance |
| Nov 21 | Global Flash PMIs (US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, others) | Growth momentum, inflation pressures |
| Nov 21 | UK Retail Sales (Oct), Canada Retail Sales (Sep) | Consumer spending health |
| Nov 21 | Japan CPI (Oct), US UoM Sentiment (Nov, final) | Inflation, consumer confidence |
Market Sentiment and Risks
- Equities: Markets remain near record highs, buoyed by strong Q3 earnings (blended growth rate near 17% year-over-year), but face headwinds from Fed uncertainty and sticky inflation. Tech leadership persists, though valuations are elevated.
- Bonds: Yields remain volatile, with the US 10-year near 4.12%. Any hawkish surprises from FOMC minutes or inflation data could push yields higher.
- Currencies: The USD has seen selling pressure but remains supported by relative economic strength. GBP, EUR, and JPY will react to local data and central bank signals. AUD sensitive to RBA minutes and China data.
- Commodities: Oil is set for a third weekly loss amid oversupply signals, trading below $59 for WTI. Gold remains a safe haven amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
Bottom Line
The week of November 17–21, 2025, is pivotal for global markets, with FOMC minutes, key inflation data, and flash PMIs all poised to shape expectations for December central bank decisions and year-end positioning. While corporate earnings provide support, sticky inflation, weakening labor markets, and policy uncertainty keep volatility elevated. Investors should maintain diversification, focus on quality assets, and prepare for potential sharp moves around key data releases and Fed communications.
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Final Key Takeaway
Discipline, speed, and smart use of technology are the winning trio in today’s markets. With the right mindset and strategies, you can turn every market move into an opportunity—trade focused, trade prepared, and let innovation power your edge.